Conservation and economic benefits of a road around the Serengeti

No abstract available

State of the climate in 2013

In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earths surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series. © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved

The use of indigenous knowledge in weather and climate prediction in Mahenge and Ismani wards, Tanzania

This paper discusses the role of indigenous knowledge (IK) in weather and climate prediction in Mahenge and Ismani wards focusing on Safari Road and Mahenge Mjini villages in Mahenge; and Uhominyi and Ismani Tarafani villages in Ismani. The perception of local communities about climate change is assessed. Local environmental and astronomical indicators used by local communities in weather and climate prediction are identified and documented. A team of five IK experts in both Mahenge and Ismani was identified and assigned the task of making continuous observations of the IK indicators and producing seasonal rainfall forecast for the purpose of testing the accuracy and reliability of IK. Key informant interviews and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) approaches were used in data collection regarding existing IK in weather forecast. A total of 120 respondents were interviewed in study Mahenge and Ismani wards respectively. A Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was used for data analysis. More than 83% of the respondents were found to be aware of climate change. Plant phenology, particularly that of mango trees was found to be the most used indicator in both wards. An assessment of the forecasted and observed 2011/2012 seasonal rainfall indicates comparable results.This article is also published in a Proceedings of the first Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation Programme Scientific Conference, 2012Royal Norwegian Governmen

Trends of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in two communities of Muheza district North-eastern Tanzania: correlation between parasite prevalence, malaria interventions and rainfall in the context of re-emergence of malaria after two decades of progressively declining transmission

Background Although the recent decline of malaria burden in some African countries has been attributed to a scale-up of interventions, such as bed nets (insecticide-treated bed nets, ITNs/long-lasting insecticidal nets, LLINs), the contribution of other factors to these changes has not been rigorously assessed. This study assessed the trends of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in Magoda (1992–2017) and Mpapayu (1998–2017) villages of Muheza district, North-eastern Tanzania, in relation to changes in the levels of different interventions and rainfall patterns. Methods Individuals aged 0–19 years were recruited in cross-sectional surveys to determine the prevalence of P. falciparum infections in relation to different malaria interventions deployed, particularly bed nets and anti-malarial drugs. Trends and patterns of rainfall in Muheza for 35 years (from 1981 to 2016) were assessed to determine changes in the amount and pattern of rainfall and their possible impacts on P. falciparum prevalence besides of those ascribed to interventions. Results High prevalence (84–54%) was reported between 1992 and 2000 in Magoda, and 1998 and 2000 in Mpapayu, but it declined sharply from 2001 to 2004 (from 52.0 to 25.0%), followed by a progressive decline between 2008 and 2012 (to ≤ 7% in both villages). However, the prevalence increased significantly from 2013 to 2016 reaching ≥ 20.0% in 2016 (both villages), but declined in the two villages to ≤ 13% in 2017. Overall and age specific P. falciparum prevalence decreased in both villages over the years but with a peak prevalence shifting from children aged 5–9 years to those aged 10–19 years from 2008 onwards. Bed net coverage increased from &lt; 4% in 1998 to &gt; 98% in 2001 and was ≥ 85.0% in 2004 in both villages; followed by fluctuations with coverage ranging from 35.0 to ≤ 98% between 2008 and 2017. The 12-month weighted anomaly standardized precipitation index showed a marked rainfall deficit in 1990–1996 and 1999–2010 coinciding with declining prevalence and despite relatively high bed net coverage from 2000. From 1992, the risk of infection decreased steadily up to 2013 when the lowest risk was observed (RR = 0.07; 95% CI 0.06–0.08, P &lt; 0.001), but it was significantly higher during periods with positive rainfall anomalies (RR = 2.79; 95% CI 2.23–3.50, P &lt; 0.001). The risk was lower among individuals not owning bed nets compared to those with nets (RR = 1.35; 95% CI 1.22–1.49, P &lt; 0.001). Conclusions A decline in prevalence up to 2012 and resurgence thereafter was likely associated with changes in monthly rainfall, offset against changing malaria interventions. A sustained surveillance covering multiple factors needs to be undertaken and climate must be taken into consideration when relating control interventions to malaria prevalence.</p

Two decades of change in state, pressure and conservation responses in the coastal forest biodiversity hotspot of Tanzania

We present an analysis of changes of state, pres- sures and conservation responses over 20 years in the Tanzanian portion of the Coastal Forests of Eastern Africa biodiversity hotspot. Baseline data collected during 1989-1995 are compared with data from a synthesis of recently published papers and reports and new field work carried out across the region during 2010-2014. We show that bio- diversity endemism values are largely unchanged, although two new species (amphibian and mammal) have been named and two extremely rare tree species have been relo- cated. However, forest habitat continues to be lost and de- graded, largely as a result of agricultural expansion, charcoal production to supply cities with cooking fuel, log- ging for timber and cutting of wood for firewood and build- ing poles. Habitat loss is linked to an increase in the number of species threatened over time. The government-managed forest reserve network has expanded slightly but has low ef- fectiveness. Three forest reserves have been upgraded to National Parks and Nature Reserves, which have stricter protection and more effective enforcement. There has also been rapid development of village-owned forest reserves, with more than 140 now existing; although usually small, they are an important addition to the areas being managed for sustainable resource use, and also provide tangible benefits to local people. Human-use pressures remain in- tense in many areas, and combined with emerging pressures from mining, gas and oil exploration, many endemic species remain threatened with extinction